Your Guide to U.S. Elections
Welcome to The Election Guide. This site will be updated regularly with the latest news and information about U.S. elections especially the 2008 Presidential Election and the 2008 Presidential Candidates.
November 4th, 2008 is Election Day. The next set of national elections that will shape our country's future will occur on this day. Election Day 2008 features the Presidential Election, 33 U.S. Senate Elections, 435 U.S. Congressional Elections and 11 state gubernatorial elections.
Wednesday January 30, 2008
John McCain and Hillary Clinton are the winners in Florida. McCain won the crucial contest by about five points, 36-31. Hillary Clinton won 50-33 over Barack Obama. None of the Democrats actively campaigned in Florida and right now it has no delegates because it violated DNC rules by setting the primary too early. John McCain has taken the delegate lead on the Republican side with his victory and is in good position in many Super Tuesday states.
Rudy Giuliani finished a disappointing third with about 15 percent of the vote. He is expected to drop out possibly as soon as tomorrow and endorse John McCain.
Super Tuesday is 6 days away. More than 20 states will be voting or caucusing. The largest states include California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey. Almost 50 percent of the total delegates are up for grabs next Tuesday.
Polls show Clinton and McCain leading many of the bigger states. A new wave of polls taken after Florida should be available tomorrow or Thursday which will give us a clearer picture of what to expect.
Tuesday January 29, 2008
The Florida Primaries are today. Hillary Clinton will win the uncontested Democratic primary. The Republican primary is between John McCain and Mitt Romney.
On Saturday, Barack Obama won the South Carolina primary by over 25 percent. Obama has gained momentum and several endorsements as a result. He could be competitive on Super Tuesday as a result.
Monday January 21, 2008
The weekend featured the Nevada Caucuses which were won by Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney.
The Republican South Carolina primary was Saturday as well. John McCain won over Mike Huckabee 33 to 30. Fred Thompson needed to do better than his third place showing. He will likely drop out of the race soon.
Next up is South Carolina for the Democrats. Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton by a few points in the polls. The primary will take place Saturday.
Next Tuesday is the Florida Primary. It could very well decide the Republican nominee. Rudy Giuliani is depending on winning Florida. John McCain is leading recent polls and a win would make him a big favorite heading into Super Tuesday one week later. For the Democrats Hillary Clinton is likely to win Florida though it has no delegates because it violated Democratic National Committee rules by holding the primary too early.
Wednesday January 16, 2008
Mitt Romney won the Republican Michigan primary yesterday by a healthly 10 point margin over second place John McCain. Mike Huckabee placed third. Romney is now solidly back in the race and so far has the most delegates. The race is very tight among the top four Republicans heading into Nevada and South Carolina this Saturday. I expect Romney or McCain to win Nevada and McCain or Huckabee to win South Carolina. If McCain could win both he would be in very good shape to win Florida on the 29th. A win in all three likely delivers California and several other states to McCain on Super Tuesday. That would likely knock Giuliani out and help McCain even more since they both appeal to the more moderate Republicans.
Hillary Clinton beat "Uncommitted" by about 20 points in Michigan. Right now Michigan's delegates don't count because the state violated Democratic National Committee rules. If the race is close heading into the Democratic convention there could be a major showdown over counting Michigan and Florida delegates.
The three major Democrats also participated in a debate in Nevada last night. It seemed to be a rather calm debate with lots of agreement among the candidates. Democrats have the Nevada Caucus on Saturday then the South Carolina Primary next Saturday and Florida the 29th.
Tuesday January 15, 2008
The Michigan Primaries are today. Hillary Clinton will win easily as she is the only major Democrat on the ballot. John McCain and Mitt Romney are both looking to win the Republican primary. My best guess is that McCain will win by a small margin largely due to the fact that Michigan has an open system that allows anyone to vote in the Republican primary. Independents and some Democrats are likely to vote for McCain with no real race on the Democratic side.
Monday January 14, 2008
Tomorrow is the Michigan Primary. Hillary Clinton is facing off against Uncommitted as Barack Obama and John Edwards aren't on the ballot. She will obviously win but it will important to see by how much. Mitt Romney and John McCain are the two frontrunners on the Republican side. Polls showed John McCain leading a few days ago but the last few polls have Romney ahead. It should be close with Mike Huckabee in third place.
New national polls show Hillary Clinton leading by margins of 5-15 percent. John McCain is leading Republicans by margins of 8-15 percent.
Four days after Michigan the Nevada Caucuses and the Republican South Carolina Primary will take place. Labor unions will be important in the Nevada Democratic caucus. Barack Obama won the endorsement of the important Culinary Worker's Union and may have a small advantage. The Republican races are wide open. John McCain received the endorsements of two major South Carolina newspapers, The State and The Greenville News which should help him. Mike Huckabee has strong support from the large evangelical. Fred Thompson, the most conservative candidate, is making his last stand in South Carolina. I expect Huckabee to win with McCain second. In Nevada I expect Mitt Romney to win because of the significant Mormon population.
Wednesday January 9, 2008
The New Hampshire results are in. In a major change of events, Hillary Clinton came back from being down double digits to win. On the Republican side John McCain won with Mitt Romney second.
John Edwards placed third on the Democratic side and is basically done. Huckabee finished third for Republicans and looks to be strong in South Carolina and Florida.
Michigan Primary
Next up is Michigan on January 15th. Hillary Clinton is the only major Democrat on the ballot and the Michigan Democratic primary will get no delegates after violating Democratic National Committee rules. The Republican race will be between John McCain who won Michigan in 2000, Mitt Romney who grew up in Michigan and who's father was once Governor, and Mike Huckabee winner of the Iowa Caucus. This might be Romney's last stand. If McCain wins, Romney is likely done. Huckabee is mostly likely fighting for a strong second or third.
Nevada Caucuses
The Nevada Caucuses are four days after Michigan. This contest is wide open in both parties.
Tuesday January 8, 2008
The New Hampshire primaries are today. Democrat Barack Obama is expected to win possibly by double digits. On the Republican side either John McCain or Mitt Romney will win. McCain is leading the polls and I believe will win by about 5 percent over Romney.
Sunday January 6, 2008
Power rankings have been updated after Iowa results.
Visit the newest Republican Candidates Power Rankings
Visit the newest Democratic Candidates Power Rankings
Visit the newest General Election Power Rankings
The New Hampshire primaries are on Tuesday. They will play a very important role in determining the nominees. Hillary Clinton really needs to win and is polling close to Obama. John McCain looks set to win on the Republican side which might knock out Mitt Romney.
Friday January 4, 2008
Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee have won their respective Iowa Caucuses. Obama won by about 7 percentage points over both John Edwards and Hillary Clinton. Edwards and Clinton are very close but it looks like Edwards will be second. The next highest was Bill Richardson with just 2 percent. Senators Chris Dodd and Joe Biden have announced they are dropping out of the race.
Mike Huckabee won the Republican caucus by a respectable margin of 8 percent. Romney was second. John McCain and Fred Thompson were very close to each other for third. Ron Paul finished fifth and Giuliani sixth.
Thursday January 3, 2008
The Iowa Caucuses are today.
On the Democratic side Barack Obama is favored to win over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards according to recent polling. John Edwards needs Iowa the most followed by Obama then Clinton. If Edwards finishes third he is likely done. Fourth place is likely to be Joe Biden or Bill Richardson. Biden has been drawing good sized crowds so I look for him to take fourth.
On the Republican side the winner will be either Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney. Like John Edwards, Huckabee badly needs to win Iowa. John McCain and Fred Thompson appear to be in a close race for third. Thompson has said he needs at least second to have a chance and could drop out soon with a third or fourth place finish. Third for McCain would certainly help his chances and may well win him him New Hampshire. The national frontrunner Rudy Giuliani is likely to get fifth behind Huckabee, Romney, McCain, and Thompson or possibly sixth if he falls behind Ron Paul.
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